The ongoing military conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has evolved far beyond a regional security issue. It has become one of the most serious geopolitical and economic crises in recent history, threatening global peace, trade, energy security and food supplies. What began as a military confrontation is now sending shockwaves through international markets and exposing the vulnerability of an increasingly interconnected global economy, according to the editorial of the current News Bulletin (April-June, 2026 issue) of International Chamber of Commerce-Bangladesh (ICCB) released today.

For the global business community, the consequences are profound. The conflict has disrupted critical energy infrastructure and endangered shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes. Rising oil and gas prices have increased transportation and production costs worldwide, placing renewed inflationary pressure on both developed and developing economies.

The impact extends well beyond the energy sector. Higher fertilizer prices, disrupted supply chains and escalating freight costs are threatening global food security. Manufacturing industries are facing increased input costs, while investors are becoming more cautious amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

The economic and humanitarian costs of prolonged US-Iran conflict are becoming increasingly stark. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the war in Iran is absorbing vast financial resources—estimated at around $2 billion per week—that could otherwise be directed toward saving more than 87 million lives globally.

International financial institutions have already warned that prolonged hostilities could significantly weaken global economic growth while fuelling inflation. For many developing countries, particularly those heavily dependent on imported energy and food, the conflict risks widening fiscal deficits, increasing debt burdens and delaying sustainable development goals.

Bangladesh is among the economies most exposed to the ripple effects of the conflict. As a net importer of fuel, fertilizer and several essential commodities, the country faces mounting pressure from higher global energy prices, increased shipping and insurance costs, and disruptions to international supply chains. These challenges are likely to fuel inflation, widen the trade deficit, increase fiscal pressure through higher energy subsidies, and raise production costs for export-oriented industries, particularly the ready-made garments sector. Rising fertilizer prices could also affect agricultural productivity and food prices, while prolonged geopolitical uncertainty may discourage foreign investment and complicate Bangladesh's efforts to sustain economic growth, maintain macroeconomic stability and achieve a smooth graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category.

The crisis also highlights the importance of a resilient global trade system. Businesses are increasingly diversifying supply chains, strengthening inventory management and investing in digital trade solutions to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. However, these adjustments require time, investment and international cooperation.

At this critical juncture, the international community must prioritise diplomacy over confrontation. Sustainable peace is not only a political necessity but also an economic imperative. Governments, international organizations and the private sector must work together to preserve open trade routes, protect civilian infrastructure and ensure uninterrupted access to food, energy and essential commodities.

According to the latest International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and Oxford Economics joint Report, economic policy uncertainty has imposed a significant cost on global business investment. The analysis finds that the surge in economic policy uncertainty in 2025 reduced real business investment by 1.4% across ten major economies, equivalent to approximately US$202 billion in lost or delayed capital spending. In an adverse 2026 scenario, that cost could rise to US$380 billion, while a return to greater policy clarity could generate an additional US$252 billion in investment—a swing of more than US$630 billion. In short, predictability and stability remain major economic assets.

For ICC and the global business community, the message is clear: peace remains the strongest foundation for prosperity. Without stability, businesses cannot invest with confidence, supply chains cannot function efficiently and sustainable economic development becomes increasingly difficult to achieve.

The US–Israeli war on Iran serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical conflicts no longer remain confined within national borders. Their economic consequences are global, affecting every country, every business and every consumer. Preventing further escalation is, therefore, not merely a diplomatic objective—it is essential for safeguarding the future of the global economy.